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SENSEX Outlook for the year 2012 by Rajib Chakraborty                      (Updated on 01-02-12)

Founder & CEO, iERA Corporate
Indian equity benchmarks embarked upon a strong rally from opening session of the month and continued up tick till the end. Price action resulted in a strong Bull candle for January’12 imposing solid comeback from the bullish camp. Monthly candlestick chart resembles Bullish Engulfing line pattern. Low of the pattern at 15135 remains major support for the Sensex from medium term perspective. After rallying 12% in January 2012, index is expected to cool off in February and major hurdles are projected in the range of 17,300 – 17,700 levels basis following observations: (i) During entire 2011, the Sensex has not rallied more than 2520 points. The similar magnitude of rally, in absolute terms, from December lows (15135) measures at 17650 levels. This level is expected to pose at least a short term hurdle for the index. (ii) The Sensex has approached crucial moving averages after a gap of three months. 200 day moving average (17286) and 52 week moving average (17232) are expected to trigger some volatility after breathtaking rally. (iii)  8.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire fall during 2011 (21108-15135) is placed at 17418 levels. Only a strong close above 17700 would open up sides towards next resistance around 18200 which is 50% retracement of the 2011 fall. On the flip side, any throwback in the prices from the mentioned resistance zone can attract buying support in the range of 16600-16400 range which is 38.2% and 50% retracement of the January’12 rally. Positive: Pharma, Auto, IT, Telecom. Neutral: Banking, FMCG, Oil & Gas. Negative: Infrastructure, Capital Goods, Cement, Metals, Real estate, Shipping.                                                                                                                                         SENSEX CHART


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